A Spotlight on Spotlights: How Bright Are They?

Warning, this is going to be a long one. But I promise it's worth it.

Let's also make this very clear too before the entire community throws their pitchforks and torches up into the air…

This is an opinion piece based on a combination of statistics, the base purpose of the game, the economic intention of Second Dinner, and the entire player community (no matter the investment level).
What this will NOT be is a full recommendation guide with every possible scenario in it. However, the goal of the article is to answer some confusing questions in a new way that hopefully you, the reader, can relate to.

But before that let's answer an unfortunately very confusing question (which essentially is the entire basis of the article):

What -is- a Collection?

Depending on who you ask, you're going to get very different answers. If you ask Second Dinner, all their marketing and economic decisions seem to be based on the idea that your Collection is based on as many Variants and Cards as possible. However, if you ask most of the player community, that definition is different. We, as a community, typically look at a collection as having as many Cards as possible, variants are secondary. How many different cards can you put into a deck to create different combinations? How many unique abilities do you have to play with when building a deck? Now, we can look at the actual change to reserves and caches, and the new Spotlight system.

What is the goal of this change?

Reason #1- Second Dinner is looking to minimize hoarding.

If there's anything Second Dinner has learned from the Variant Rush seasons of the past, it’s that players love to hoard their resources. However, when looking at the broad scope of the game economy, resources saved are not as economically stable or sound for the development company as they are for the community. We, as players, enjoy the benefits of hoarding by selectively obtaining specific variants, packs, rewards, etc. at a lower investment threshold. This system is less successful for the longevity of Marvel Snap and needs to be addressed.

Reason #2 - Restructure the economic model.

Prior to Spotlights, the major focus for progressing into Series 4 and Series 5 cards had been primarily pushed towards the Collectors Token Economy system. Given the incredibly low drop rates of organic Series 5 cards on the Collection Track and guaranteeing only a Series 4 card every 480 CLs, having newly released cards become relevant in daily gameplay in Marvel Snap has been an exclusive luxury to those with deep pockets, supreme resource hoards or incredible luck. Whether it be hoarding Collector Tokens or hoarding gold (which before the Spotlight system was a resource obtainable on the Collection Track), neither model feeds well into having Marvel Snap become a sustainable game and monetization model that can supply Second Dinner with the resources it needs to continue to expand the game, nor does it satisfy the player base looking to play with new and meta-relevant cards.

In conjunction with the changes to the caches in July, according to the data mines, as of now (spoiler alert), the bundle packs incoming feed to that same economic model. There are more packs in July featuring higher gold expenditures, and there are nearly none of good resource value potentially coming in August. The presence of higher gold spends closer to the switch to this new system plus the potential removal of these high-value gold bundles coincides with this economic ideology similarly. Remove the ability to hoard free gold resources, give the temptation to spend that gold in large quantities and deplete the resource plethora, then feature bundles in the future more focused towards direct currency exchange (aka cash) rather than in game currency (a resource that is now evolving into the “premium” category).

Knowing that these changes are coming to the game in the very near future (from the release of this article), it's also very clear what the most pressing question is:

What should I do with my reserves? Should I open them?

Here's what I think depending on what your goals are:

If looking to finish S3 and care less about S4/S5, if you have less than 20 Reserves banked, save them.
If looking to finish S3 and care less about S4/S5, if you have 20+ caches banked, open them as you’re more likely to obtain five S3 cards per 20 Reserves in the current system vs four S3 cards per 20 Reserves in the upcoming system.
If looking to finish S3 and care more about S4/S5, chances are you have very few S4/S5 cards now anyway, in which case I’d say to hold onto your Reserves to obtain multiple new S4/S5 cards in the new system.
If you’re S3 complete…
1. Tally your total missing cards into the value of Tokens. S4s=3000 & S5s=6000.
2. If you’re missing more than 55k in S4+S5 tokens, save Reserves for the new system.
3. If you’re missing 30k-55k in S4+S5 cards and have 40+ Reserves currently hoarded for any reason, open 40 Reserves to gain around 5000 Collector’s Tokens. This will help you to buy Julys S4 releases from the Token Shop. Then, start saving Reserves for new S4/S5 releases in August and beyond. This enables a mix of cheaper purchases for S4 releases and mixes in the pro-hoard side positively.
4. If you’re missing less than 30k in S4+S5 cards, still hoard. Here’s why…

Second Dinners new system is reflective of a true CCG in more ways than you may realize.

Most collective card games do not release cards in the way that Marvel Snap does. Yet somehow, miraculously, it fits within the CCG model. Imagine this. Flashback to 24 years ago, and you’re going to Toys'R'Us to grab a pack of Pokémon cards to see if you can get that 1st Edition Charizard you desperately want. So you go to the store, open the pack, slowly flip through the cards, and hope to see the holographic you're looking for. The excitement builds, the anticipation builds, and the sweat and anxiety of the moment build.

That simultaneous uncertainty and excitement are created by the randomness of opening packs. "Spot farming" is nearly impossible. And if you DID want to "spot farm," you'd have to wait for someone else to randomly obtain it and then buy it off them at a crazy premium upcharge. This philosophy can equally be applied to Marvel Snap in paying a premium to purchase a target card with the Collector's Tokens. A premium purchase to directly obtain a premium item.

The consistent comparison to other models, like Hearthstone and Magic the Gathering, with seasonal drops followed by long lulls of content would be detrimental to Snap's game model. The game model is primarily focused on: 1) short-time commitments primarily, 2) long-time commitment, and 3) above-and-beyond content ingestion levels ultimately. This means that a game that releases cards weekly rather than monthly or quarterly is consistent with the speed of the game. The novelty of having four to five new cards drop simultaneously in the first week of the month would lead to a tremendous fall-off in the latter half of the month which would be incredibly difficult to reinvigorate month after month, given the game model. And before the investment side of the community gets all tied up in a bunch, of course there are acceleration mechanics built into the game. Ways to purchase gold, specific cards that you're looking to unlock with seasonal packs, hybrid packs that include variants and resources—all these mechanics do exist to help bring you closer to getting to that ultimate goal, a full collection (by whichever definition you associate with). However, I’m going to let you in on a little secret...

Second Dinner doesn’t want you to have all the cards.

They expect you to play and always end up with an average of 60–75% of all the S4/S5 cards (depending on your commitment level to the daily play expectations and economic decisions). One card a week vs. four cards a month. And if you DO want all the cards, simultaneously, we shouldn’t fault a company for needing to make a profit. It’s their job. However, what we can do is look at the scope of what they do for the majority of the player base. It’s clear that most players do not have at least 80% of their S4/S5 collection complete. Just because you could doesn’t mean you can. You could get all four cards a month FtP, but that’s a .4% chance. Realistically, for 40 caches organically (aka free-to-play), you’re looking at about 2.5 cards a month based on all possible scenarios.

However, when dissecting the average incoming ingestion of S4/S5 cards, it looks like this: If you are…

0-20% S4/S5 Full- 3-4 Cards/Month incoming
21-40% S4/S5 Full- ~3 Cards/Month incoming
41-60% S4/S5 Full- 2-3 Cards/Month incoming
61-80% S4/S5 Full- ~2 Cards/Month incoming
81-100% S4/S5 Full- 1-2 Cards/Month incoming

So, what does that look like over the entire scope of the game? Let’s tally it up. At the time of this article release…

72 Cards – Starter + Recruit + Series 1
25 Cards – Series 2
99 Cards – Series 3
11 Cards – Series 4
13 Cards – Series 5

So, being S3 Complete is equal to being 196/220 = 89% collection complete. In the new system, players can organically unlock…

Collection Level 506-994 – 4 groups of 120 CL = 4 Spotlights & 16 S3 Cards
Collection Level 1006-5986 – 41.5 groups of 120 CL = 41 Spotlight Caches & 83 S3 Cards

So, after getting S3 complete, IF you focused on an average of 3 Spotlights per S4/S5 unlock (that’s a 50% probability case, the dead even average between risk and guarantee), that gets you 45/3 = 15 S4/S5 Cards organically. In addition, becoming S3 complete is only 1 extra S3 card away from its new goal ceiling of achieving a 6,000-collector score. So for a new player starting under the new system, at the time they are S3 complete, they could be approximately 62.5% (15/24) complete with their S4/S5 collection (factoring the average increase of new cards with the reduced average of older cards dropping into S3, this then averages +/-5%).

All these changes cumulatively, once again, speak loudly to the idea that the point of this new economy and collection model isn’t to have a "Full Collection" of all the potential cards in existence at your disposal. It is to get you to the 95th percentile mark... and keep you there from month to month. So, in the scope of CCGs, having 95% of the cards possibly in existence appears to be on point, and if you wish to push that completion percentage higher, it comes at a premium, just like any other CCG. Conversely, with the combination of a longer Series 3 track, only one "free spot farming" Series 3 card allocated per month, and a Nexus-inspired system that promotes fortuity over concentration, the player's reign of control is reduced in exchange for the embrace of creativity, diversity, and challenge. Ultimately, what you choose to do is (mostly) up to you. Make (most of) your own decisions. Have fun. However, don’t ignore the other glaring elephant in the room…

What should you do once the change goes live?

Wait - Don’t use a single Spotlight until some guinea pigs do so first. Someone must be first. Someone must make a video. Someone must fulfill the title "Whines on the Internet” and demonstrate how the system functions and feels. As this happens, we will have more information and can make better, more informed decisions in the first few hours prior to updates.
Target - Decide on 2 Series S4/S5 releases per month that you wish to target. Pick your priority and use your Spotlights there. Target farming to obtain 1-3 new cards a month will keep you within that 95th percentile of collection completion, the target goal for most of Marvel Snap moving forward.
Farm - Use your credits. This system promotes the use of unloading credits and upgrading cards. Moving up the CL track and earning more "packs" (aka Spotlights) is the incentive of the new economy. It is less about "farming Collector's Tokens" and is now about "farming Collection Levels".
Search - Use the tools at your disposal both in game and in community resources like here on Snap.fan to get second and third opinions on decisions in Marvel Snap. Find the smartest ways to spend your gold, your dollars, and your Spotlights and make sound decisions if you’re looking to maximize your investment. However, as we always reiterate, do whatever your heart desires. If you like it, get it. But chances are, if you’re reading this article to begin with, you lean more towards the side of "be smart" not just "play with heart".
Don’t Worry - Second Dinner isn’t making these changes for the beta players, or the global launch players, or the content creators, or the whales, or the tournament grinders, or those who left Marvel Snap. They’re making this change for the other 75% of the community. The casual player. The newcomer. The FtP grinder. The long-term future of Marvel Snap.

Remember, the goal of this change is to get the player base to have “different collections”. Remember, "Your Collection, Your Way". That is being achieved in a few ways simultaneously.

Not having a full-variety collection. Organically positioning players to always have only 60-80% of the available S4 & S5 cards keeps players’ accounts inconsistent, therefore diverse, and "unique". Remember, two players that both have the same 100 out of 100 cards means one collection combination, no variance. However, two players who both have 99 out of 100 different cards could have 500 different combinations of diversity between their collections.
Increase in Variant diversity feeds into what Second Dinner is praising. “Hey, I have all but 4 cards, but check out this limited Knull Variant I have that only 1% of people have!”. Revisiting the emphasis on Variants and their role in Marvel Snap will develop that diversity as well.
Restricting access to specifically target certain Series 3, 4 and 5 cards...unless it's for a premium. Whilst it is common belief that allocating more than one free Series 3 card per month would be beneficial for the player base to build the deck archetypes they desire (Patriot, Cerebro, Beast, Hela, Mr. Negative, just to name a few archetype-defining cards players could expend their deck horizons with), it is clear that this agency is against the cumulative goal of the new Spotlight-focused economy: promoting diversity and challenge.

With that said, what does the future of Spotlight system look like?

New and “green” players will have a more diverse collection as they progress up the CL track. They’ll have more S5 cards than ever before, which may mean fewer S4 cards than previous systems, but it incentivizes the idea that current releases are relevant to everyone, not just those who spent dollars or saved tokens from the previous season.
By the time September/October hits, more senior players will have to choose between two paths:
- Come to terms that 100% collection completion is no longer maintainable without heavy resource expenditure. 95% is the goal and that’s completely okay.
- Refute the system to regain some potential version of this objective.
Second Dinner will survive in the long term. This is the foundation of a much longer economic roadmap for Marvel Snap. They are looking to create a culture and player base that is excited about diversity and competition. There will always be completionists. There will always be creators. There will always be whales. There will always be cheerleaders. There will always be Negative Nancy’s. There will always be trolls. Either way, through it all, Second Dinner is looking at everyone’s accounts, resource choices, collections, and play patterns and making a decision that is going to incentivize player growth for new players while creating a stable economic system using the players that already exist. People will leave. People will come. People will come back. But either way, they have created a system that will survive.
Content creation models may change for some major creators. Being able to put out a new video every single week showing gameplay of the ‘new card’ may be way less attainable than before. This will lead to a different focus and direction for many. This isn’t a bad thing. It incentivizes creativity and diversity. Therefore, this is a good thing.
Theory-crafting will increase..out of necessity. There will be an increase in that favorite question amongst the community, “I don’t have (insert character here). Any suggestions?” More players will begin to discover the asymptote collection feeling of always being just short of hitting the line, which increases creativity in that exact scenario. This will lead to more discoveries and new combinations than ever before.
Frustration will grow around randomness (for Series 3 incomplete players). The constant sensation of only having agency to specifically target one Series 3 card per month may lead to frustration as even dedicated and economically efficient free to play players still take around six months to complete series 3. Theory-crafting is a backbone to this game. Limiting the breadth of those major archetypes due to luck in Series three could be the difference maker between earning a player for three months...and earning a player for three years.
Excitement will grow around randomness. Opening packs in CCGs was always one of the most thrilling parts of the game for many. There’s a lot of enjoyment around the thrill of opening a pack of cards, finding out what the foil is, and screaming when you get the "ultra-rare." This brings a bit of that element, and it should be embraced as something fun.

In conclusion, a reminder of what’s important....

It’s a game. It should be fun. It shouldn’t be about hitting that 100% collection goal. It should be about the battles, the variants, the excitement of the process, the grind, the community, and so much more. It is all too common that in the online gaming world, specifically mobile, we get stuck in the FOMO mindset. The new system is a regulator for that. We can’t have FOMO if we all have it, because we're all in the same boat.

It is unfortunate that we must be occasionally reminded that this is a game. What this new economy does is PROMOTE that because of the ceiling it organically puts on its players. You don’t get punished if you’re free to play; you get rewarded for being creative. You thrive in a game that is based around the core idea of 12 simple cards working together to overtake your opponent. 12. Not 210, 211, or 212. Just…12. How YOU choose to use or get those 12 is up to you. But either way, you’ll have a great time on the journey discovering what YOUR unique collection can do and what it will look like. Open Spotlights, risk eight cubes, get that variant you always wanted, and have fun…and always snap on Ego (on ladder only).

Thank you for coming to my SNAP Talk.