Before we get started:
These are not official changes. This is just pure speculation.
With the scheduled OTA tomorrow, we decided it would be interesting to examine the meta game and current card pool, and make some predictions based on the data we have. We know that Second Dinner has their own set of internal metrics that dictate when it needs to take action, either nerfing or buffing a card. They also preemptively nerf or buff cards depending on future releases. Taking all that into account for predictions can be slightly daunting, but why not give it a try? Regardless, this isn't exactly a wish list for what I want to change, although I definitely would love to see certain cards get changed more than others. Oh well, let's get to the predictions and see what might be on the docket for a change tomorrow.
Nerf Candidates
Meta Outliers
An outlier in statistics typically refers to a data point that significantly differs from the other observations. For example, Mr. Fantastic First Steps has a 40% usage rate, which is considerably higher than the next card on the list, Shang-Chi. This is what we would classify as an outlier. Historically, Second Dinner doesn't always make adjustments based solely on popularity, often allowing cards to remain unchanged longer than the community would prefer. Therefore, it’s possible that Mr. Fantastic First Steps may not receive any changes. Additionally, they don’t always target the card that the community perceives as problematic. For instance, Mr. Fantastic First Steps is heavily utilized in end-of-turn decks. It's likely that they may nerf other cards around Mr. Fantastic to weaken the end-of-turn strategy rather than nerf Mr. Fantastic himself. However, I hope they don't make such changes and instead focus on the card itself. Mr. Fantastic First Steps is a highly flexible card that can fit into nearly every deck. If they try to nerf cards around him, I doubt that will resolve any issues, considering his nearly 40-50% usage rate is indeed very high.
So, what should we do with him? In the past, we’ve seen cards that dominate the game receive minimal nerfs, such as a slight point reduction. Should we reduce Mr. Fantastic First Steps to a 2/1? I'm not sure that would have much impact. Alternatively, we could limit his power boost to only 1 point, which might be more effective. Another option could be raising his cost to 3, which would definitely reduce his playability and splashability. However, there's a slight risk with increasing his cost, as he may still remain a strong card in Surfer decks. Is that necessarily a bad thing? Not always, and personally, I prefer seeing cards have their costs adjusted rather than changing their overall function.
While Surge may not be as much of an outlier as Mr. Fantastic, she still boasts an impressive, nearly 25% usage rate. Although she lacks the same level of splashability as Mr. Fantastic, she remains extremely useful in almost every deck, particularly in the 2-cost slot.
Like Mr. Fantastic, Surge provides one-sided information; you know which card received the buff while your opponent does not. Many cards offer similar types of information, but the earlier they appear on the board, the harder they are to counter or interact with. As the game progresses, it's much easier for players to overlook Surge cards, especially if the opponent is not playing them consistently each turn.
That being said, I don’t predict that Surge will be nerfed. She has considerably more variability than Mr. Fantastic, which makes her easier to manage within the game. However, if she were to be affected, I could see her losing 1 power.
With the release of Mercury, Cannonball has become similar to a pseudo Shang-Chi with a significant power change, unlike Shang-Chi who only has 3. This combination is immensely popular, even in decks that typically don’t include these cards. Cannonball is usually seen as a clog or junk card because of the movement condition in his text. However, he is now featured in many different archetypes thanks to Mercury. Given his substantial 8 power, he seems unbalanced when we consider the move condition. I could see him being adjusted to 7 or even 6 power. It's also possible that Mercury could be changed to 2/1, but that may be a bit excessive. Regardless, these two cards appear to be strong candidates for slight adjustments.
In the last update, the developers made changes to Black Cat and even acknowledged that they may have overstepped with those adjustments. I believe they did, as her power and text worked well with many of the cards from the previous season. As a result, her prevalence increased significantly, going from rarely seen to appearing in about 15% of decks. While this doesn't necessarily mean she is overpowered, I think it's quite possible that they might either revise her text to exclude "end of turn" or reduce her power to 4, similar to most other 1-cost cards with conditions.
Buff Outliers
Identifying outliers among cards that need a buff can be quite challenging. Many cards see very little to no play, and there's not just one card that stands out with significantly lower usage than others; there are about 30 that could fit this category. However, we can examine which cards have the lowest win rates when played.
Take Hobgoblin, for example. Although Hobgoblin has seen a slight increase in popularity due to the rise of Galactus decks at the start of the season, it currently has a win rate of less than 49%. Almost every other card tends to have a higher win rate when played, making Hobgoblin one of the least favorable options to include in a deck.
I was discussing Galactus with a friend who is a big fan of these decks, and when I asked for a list, he even mentioned that he cut Hobgoblin from his. That anecdote illustrates my concerns; the statistics for Hobgoblin are not encouraging.
Recently, Green Goblin received a slight buff, so it wouldn’t be surprising if Hobgoblin were to get a similar treatment. I could see him being adjusted to -9 or even -10, especially since Merlin and Annihilus have higher usage rates, and they are a natural counter. If this happens, the developers would need to ensure that Hobgoblin’s payoff is truly worthwhile.
A card that used to be included in almost every single deck is now found in barely 1% of them. The reason for this decline is that there are now many more options available in the 3-cost slot that offer greater advantages. However, with the addition of Mercury to the card pool, limiting her possible movements if need be, I believe that Nocturne could regain her power and find a place in decks again. Currently, there are very few decks that heavily rely on locations, but a card that can move could be quite useful. I think adjusting Nocturne's power to 5 could be an interesting change that might help her re-enter the game. It remains to be seen if she would fit too well in Surfer decks at that power level, but honestly, I don’t anticipate it being a problem.
The final card on my list for potential buffs is Valkyrie, which currently has a low cube rate of about 0.01 and a usage rate of around 0.5%. Valkyrie's main issues stem from the fact that Shadow King and Shang-Chi serve as more accessible tech cards that achieve similar effects. Additionally, Valkyrie's ability is universal across both lanes, making her somewhat less effective at a 5-cost because players need a solid backup plan to secure a win in that lane.
If Valkyrie were dropped to a 4-cost, I believe she would see much more play, especially in decks that naturally include Zabu. However, that change might be a bit excessive. Another interesting adjustment could be to make her ability one-sided against the opponent. This would reduce her effectiveness in Cerebro 3 but would allow her to win lanes independently, similar to the impacts of Shadow King and Shang-Chi.
Conclusion
As a quick overview, I predict that Mr. Fantastic, First Steps, Surge, Mercury, Cannonball, and Black Cat may receive some nerfs, while Valkyrie, Nocturne, and Hobgoblin are currently underutilized and could potentially receive buffs. Unfortunately, identifying which cards will be buffed without just naming all the cards that don’t see play is challenging. It's much easier to spot the problem cards because they frequently appear in your games, but recognizing the cards that are lacking within the entire card pool is more difficult. What cards would you like to see buffed, and what changes do you realistically expect for tomorrow's OTA?