With the end of the season approaching, we have a last-minute OTA that may shake up the meta game slightly tomorrow. Hopefully, it doesn't ruin anyone's infinite run or conquest plans, but it's always possible there could be a big shake-up. But, before we get started:
These are not official changes. This is just pure speculation.
The current meta game is relatively balanced, with no specific deck or card standing out as a significant issue. The last OTA was successful in helping to even things out overall. However, there are still a few problem areas that need attention, although they are relatively minor.
Nerf Candidates
Let's begin with a card that has been around for some time and tends to go in and out of favor periodically. While its power level isn't particularly high, and its win rate, both when played and when drawn, isn't a primary concern, it still poses significant challenges.
Here is Juggernaut's current Snap.Fan stats:
- Seen: 11.0%(#14)
- Won when Played: 57.19%(#95)
- Won when Drawn: 56.14%(#66)
- Won in Deck: 56.36%(#33)
Juggernaut falls into the same category as Alioth and Cannonball. These are priority cards, meaning their effectiveness largely depends on which player has priority. Unfortunately, Juggernaut, while more powerful when you have priority, still performs well when you don't, making him a low-cost lane winner in most situations with little downside.. As a result, he is a popular choice across various deck types. While I believe Juggernaut's effect is reasonable and makes sense, he could benefit from a minor adjustment in power. Nothing too drastic, but I would like to see his power reduced to 2 or even 1, which would give him a smaller margin for winning lanes outright.
Prediction
Juggernaut: Same text 3/2
In my last prediction, I mentioned that this combination needed to be addressed, but no changes have been made. While the cards themselves are not problematic, the combination is a bit concerning. The counterargument is that it is a predictable 7-energy combo that could be similar to using Shang-Chi. While there is some truth to this, Mercury's ability to move adds complexity to the situation. Her movement ability diminishes the significance of the argument that it is telegraphed.
Regardless of these considerations, here are their current stats:
Cannonball
- Seen: 12.56%(#6)
- Won when Played: 58.76%(#49)
- Won when Drawn: 56.94%(#32)
- Won in Deck: 56.77%(#19)
Mercury
- Seen: 9.31%(#23)
- Won when Played: 57.55%(#84)
- Won when Drawn: 57.11%(#27)
- Won in Deck: 56.67%(#23)
These numbers have remained relatively consistent for several weeks, and I don't anticipate any forthcoming cards that will alter this trend. Therefore, I see two options: either remove Mercury's ability to move or slightly reduce the power of both cards to create a more balanced interaction. By lessening their power, the margin by which they can win becomes smaller. This adjustment would not eliminate their usefulness but would make them less devastating in most games.
Prediction
Mercury: 2/1 or can no longer move
Cannonball: same text 5/7 or 5/ 6
Buff Predictions
Currently, The Fallen One has some drastically abysmal performance. It's possible that few people actually picked him up, which means there are a lot fewer people playing him, but with stats as bad as he has, it also means the people who did grab him are not doing so well.
These are his current rankings according to Snap.Fan:
- Seen: 2.1%(#178)
- Won when Played: 51.52%(#326)
- Won when Drawn: 49.15%(#354)
- Won in Deck: 48.66%(#359)
That isn't very reassuring. Unfortunately, not all cards released are designed to be powerful, but we can enhance the playability of the Fallen One with a simple adjustment. I suggest increasing its power to 6. This change would ensure that it always has a noticeable effect in the game, making it comparable to a late-game Psylocke, with the potential for added benefits if the player invests more effort. I don't see any downside to this adjustment, especially since it's a 5-cost card that takes up an entire turn. Players should at least gain some advantage from it, even if it's just one extra energy.
Prediction
The Fallen One: Same text 5/6
Sersi, while still seeing some play, has largely been overshadowed by Merlin, who offers a more cost-effective option with his Polymorph skill. Misery also provides a less expensive way to handle cards similar to how Sersi does, although it serves a slightly different purpose. Sersi is a fun card with a unique effect. Still, her cost and power limitations prevent her from being used more frequently, especially when compared to the more effective Merlin or Misery.
Currently, this is her ranking on Snap.Fan:
- Seen: 1.73%(#202)
- Won when Played: 52.69%(#295)
- Won when Drawn: 52.67%(#273)
- Won in Deck: 52.6%(#260)
Not so great, meanwhile, these are Merlin's current stats on Snap.Fan.
- Seen: 11.24%(#13)
- Won when Played: 56.12%(#157)
- Won when Drawn: 55.6%(#99)
- Won in Deck: 54.87%(#105)
Merlin has definitely become a more versatile option compared to Sersi. While it's understandable that Merlin's higher usage rate is due to his many applications, Sersi is generally easier to substitute in deck building. In fact, even in decks where Sersi's extra power is desirable, Merlin or even Misery can often serve as better alternatives. Merlin isn't the primary reason for Sersi's decline, but his popularity doesn't help her situation.
One of the best solutions would be to lower Sersi's cost. This adjustment would allow her to compete more effectively with both Merlin and Misery. If her stats were changed to 4/6 or even 4/7, that would be pretty impressive. Would it be overpowered? I would prefer to see some innovative plays involving Sersi for a while at this point.
Prediction
Sersi: Same text 4/6 or 4/7
Ever since Taskmaster was nerfed due to concerns about potential issues with Human Torch, the card has struggled to fit into decks outside of Mister Negative decks. Now that the developers have adjusted Human Torch and reworked the Move archetype, effectively eliminating the Move bounce strategy, it's time to revert Taskmaster's nerf and return the card to a 5-cost card.
Here are Taskmaster's current stats:
- Seen: 2.88%(#141)
- Won when Played: 69.92%(#1)
- Won when Drawn: 53.64%(#229)
- Won in Deck: 52.55%(#265)
Taskmaster's "Won When Played" statistic stands out as an outlier. Taskmaster is primarily played when Mister Negative has a favorable draw, allowing Taskmaster to copy a Gorr, Sage, or Mystique. In that scenario, a win is almost guaranteed. However, outside of that situation, the card's overall performance is relatively poor. While reviewing Taskmaster's possible decks, I noted that he was only included in one other deck type, which was a Pixie deck, and its statistics were not impressive either. Unfortunately, the card is confined to serving as a combo piece for Mister Negative decks. This dynamic should change.
Prediction
Taskmaster: Same text 5/0
Conclusion
This prediction is brief because the meta game feels stale, and it's challenging to determine from our external data sources what needs adjustment to improve the situation. The new cards set to release next season all seem intriguing, but nothing appears to be game-breaking with the current card iterations. Although there are a few minor issues with Juggernaut, Cannonball, and Mercury, the overall balance in the game is quite good.
Hopefully, it means we can expect many buffs. What changes would you like to see in the OTA? Let me know in the comments with your Discord username for a chance at some PAX Borders!