Before we get into the decks, let's reiterate the philosophy behind making a tier list!
Personally, I've never been a fan of tier lists. They are quite often opinion more than fact, and the metrics being used are never fully clear. My primary goal here today is to be more clear with metrics (but even then, I can't be as precise as I want...we do still want some amount of human judgment).
If you'd like to listen to discussion surrounding this tier list, you can check out the Snap Judgments podcast episode late this week (there were some technical difficulties, so it won't be up today as originally planned). Their episodes can be found at https://snap-judgments.blubrry.net/.
Additionally, let's talk about cube-rate. I think it is very much wrong to use cube-rate as the defining metric. Think for a second - what does a high cube rate but low playrate mean? To me, that means you have a surprise deck that is not well known. A top tier deck does not mean it has the best possible cube results for every player - it means it has the most consistent ones across a large number of players using it however. This sort of a deck is not stable - if you imagine a scenario where suddenly everyone starts playing the deck because it's so good...the cuberate will drop off drastically.
A high cuberate but low winrate again means that people aren't expecting your last turn properly, likely because the deck is less well known - they haven't lost to it much at all. You are losing all those games you forfeit and very much taking advantage of the fact that many players are not able to read your playline. This doesn't necessarily mean the deck has anything going for it outside of it being an underdog.
A stable deck is one that people are playing around, accepting as a valid concern, etc.
Defining the Tiers
The A-Range represents meta defining decks. This means the decks must have a significant play rate. A "real good deck" that isn't played a lot is not a stable deck in the meta game as mentioned.
- A+ : Singular meta dominant deck. There should really never be more than 1 deck here (and often times, not one at all). This deck chokes out a lot of the A tier decks because it is that big of a deal.
- A : Heavily played, hard to contest decks. There should be 2-4 decks present here, if there is not an A+ deck.
- A- : Strong contenders, but missing either the dominant play rate or win rate. Perhaps a deck is heavy on s5 cards and thus is not played as much.
One of the biggest questions here is if we are in an A+ dominant meta or a more healthy A meta.
These are solid decks, but not front and center in a meta defining way. These decks should all be capable of hitting infinite. This range does not have as clear of defintions as the A-Range has. It's also worth noting a budget version of an A-Range deck could reside here. There will still be subjecting +/flat/- here.
Fringe decks that are playable. They shouldn't hurt you to play, but you may struggle to actively climb with them (though it is surely possible).
The Tier List
If you want some specifics, go check out the podcast and show notes here.
Once again, the first question is if this is an A+ deck meta or an A deck meta. The data sure supports us being in an A+ meta...
A+ : DarkhawkStature
This deck has both the win rate and play rate to stand well above the rest.
A : Darkhawk
Well, if the one A+ Darkhawk deck wasn't enough, Darkhawk even outside of the Stature list still has the numbers to truly support that Darkhawk is running the meta as a whole.
There are at least 5 known varieties, all of which sport similar statistics: Thanos, Sera, Dino, Ronan, DoomWave. If I had to make a prediction for a nerf (OTA or otherwise) in the future, it would be Darkhawk, honestly.
A- : Discard, SurferGirls (DeathWave), DoomWave, Sera Control, Galactus
The onle one of these that has any room for debate is Galactus. It has the playrate, but not a good winrate. That said, the playrate is high enough to be meta defining to the point that decks really need to respect its existence. While the winrate leaves a lot to be desired, it does sport a cuberate that is not indicative of said winrate.
B+ : Shuri, 2x SheHulk, Lane Control, Lockjaw, AttumaDestroyer, SheNaut
These decks all have very high winrates (56%+), but their playrates are not meta defining. As such, there is the unanswerable question of would they maintain said winrate if they were seeing the playrates that made people more aware of their gameplans or more willing to change their decks to counter them.
B : Patriot (Bast and Ultron), Electro Sandman, Bounce, WongPanther, Hela, Destroyer, Thanos Ongoing
B- : Sera Surfer, Move, Junk, Thanos Zoo, Hazmat
Negative, Thanos Junk, Thanos Death, Cerebro 2, Destroy, Dracula Dump
Agatha, Cerebro 3, Kazoo